Bitcoin trades near $75,800, down roughly 40% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Analysts now forecast a deeper pullback to the $60,000 level, which would mark a revisit to 2026 lows.
The sell-off reflects profit-taking after the asset's explosive rally through late 2024 and mid-2025. Several research firms have issued bearish calls citing weakening momentum indicators and reduced retail demand. On-chain metrics show whale accumulation has plateaued, suggesting institutional buyers are pausing entries at elevated valuations.
The $60,000 target represents another 20% downside from current levels. If Bitcoin reaches that price, it would erase roughly half its gains from the previous bull run cycle. Technical analysts point to broken support zones and a bearish crossover on the monthly moving average as confirmation signals.
Sentiment data shows growing caution. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index sits in neutral territory, down from extreme greed readings in October. Trading volumes on spot exchanges have compressed, typical of consolidation phases ahead of directional moves.
On-chain transaction fees have declined sharply, indicating less network activity. Bitcoin's dominance over altcoins remains elevated at 56%, suggesting risk-off positioning across the crypto market broadly. Ethereum and smaller tokens have underperformed, losing 45-50% from their 2025 highs.
Macro backdrop remains uncertain. Traditional markets show mixed signals. The U.S. dollar strength and elevated real rates have pressured risk assets across crypto and equities. Some analysts link the Bitcoin weakness to expectations of continued rate holds by the Federal Reserve.
However, long-term holders have not panicked. Data from on-chain analytics firms shows early investors remain positioned for further upside despite the drawdown. Accumulation by addresses holding 1-10