Kalshi, the prediction market platform, is funding a new lobbying effort to reshape regulations around political betting and event prediction markets. The company has backed a coalition led by a former Trump administration official, signaling an aggressive push to legitimize crypto-native prediction markets at the federal level.
John Bivona, Kalshi's head of government relations, framed the move as defensive. "We're not going to be outspent or out-organized by entrenched interests protecting their monopolies," Bivona said. The quote reveals the core tension: traditional betting and financial interests have spent years blocking prediction market expansion, and Kalshi sees lobbying as the only path forward.
Prediction markets sit in regulatory limbo. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted Kalshi limited permissions to operate event contracts tied to economic data and election outcomes, but significant restrictions remain. Political betting, in particular, faces steep headwinds from established gambling operators and financial incumbents who view prediction markets as competitive threats.
Kalshi's move reflects the broader maturation of crypto policy. Rather than operating in shadows or fighting enforcement, the platform is now organizing formal political opposition to rules it views as anticompetitive. The involvement of a former Trump official adds weight to the effort and suggests Kalshi sees opportunity in the incoming administration to reshape prediction market policy.
The timing matters. Prediction markets have gained mainstream attention, with platforms like Polymarket drawing significant trading volume during recent elections. Regulators and lawmakers increasingly view them as legitimate information aggregation tools, not pure gambling. This shift creates an opening for Kalshi to argue that restrictive rules harm price discovery and market efficiency.
The lobby effort targets both Congress and the CFTC. Kalshi wants clearer rules that allow broader event contracts while maintaining consumer protections. The group likely pushes for regulatory parity with traditional futures markets, where event-based