Bitcoin climbed to $65,300 on Friday, marking its highest level since August, as weaker-than-expected US employment data shifted market expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
The jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls came in below consensus, triggering a repricing of rate cut odds. Market participants now price in roughly 95 percent probability that the Fed holds rates steady at its next decision, with full rate cuts potentially beginning in the coming months. This shift away from prolonged rate hikes fueled a broad recovery in risk assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin's move higher reflects the inverse relationship between the asset and restrictive monetary policy. When growth data softens and Fed tightening cycles appear to be ending, investors rotate into riskier holdings. BTC has historically traded as a risk-on asset, correlating with equities during macro shifts. The employment disappointment hit equities hard initially but triggered flight-to-safety dynamics that ultimately benefited growth-sensitive and speculative assets.
The timing matters for Bitcoin's narrative. After a volatile summer, the largest crypto by market cap now sits at levels that suggest institutional and retail buyers see value ahead of potential rate cuts. Technical traders note the $65,300 level breaks through resistance that had capped rallies since mid-summer, opening the door to tests of higher resistance zones.
Broader macro watchers view the jobs report as a potential inflection point. If employment continues to weaken while inflation holds sticky, the Fed faces genuine pressure to pivot. That scenario typically benefits Bitcoin, which performs best when real yields compress and central banks shift to accommodative stances.
The move also signals that crypto markets remain tightly bound to macro flows. Despite narratives around Bitcoin's independence as a store of value, real capital still chases risk-on trades during easing cycles and flees during tightening. The $65,300 level serves as a